Bronte Media

Working Hard is Overrated Part II: The Evidence

October 5th, 2009

Caterina Fake, the co-founder of Flickr and Hunch, wrote an excellent blog post recently entitled “Working Hard is Overrated“. The point she was making was that in hindsight with her experience all the ‘hard work’ was actually fear and running around in circles worrying about what other people thought (competitors, investors, etc).

Now comes empirical evidence with this little Jeff Bezos chestnut in Ken Auletta’s book excerpt about Google that was run in this week’s New Yorker:
bezos

In being one of the four investors in Google’s initial angel financing round that stake is now worth $1.5bn at today’s prices. Bezos’ total net worth according to Forbes’ latest estimate was $6.8bn. Now that figure was as at the end of 2008 and Amazon’s stock has risen 75% since then.

But roughly one-sixth of Bezos’ wealth came in that one decision. The legacy and company he has created at Amazon is truly amazing, and perhaps he wouldn’t have even been able to have the opportunity to invest if he hadn’t already started that journey but it does go to show that life comes to down to just a few moments.

  • mcannonbrookes
    Ahh, but you can be sure that if he had only made that one decision and not created Amazon, the Carl Fox in his life would have said:

    "Stop going for the easy buck and start producing something with your life. Create, instead of living off the buying and selling of others."
  • Niki - fortune favors the lucky :-) As a fellow poker player and student of probability, you are I am sure aware of the crazy role that randomness/chance plays in our lives. It's fun to think about the sports and business worlds and apply learnings from one to the other, or just to use one as an example to draw from for the other. Amazon is my favorite company ever. I've been a loyal customer since 1994. I recommend highly http://www.amazon.com/Drunkards-Walk-Randomness... - one of the fun things it talks about is how long it takes to really show that one person/team is truly better than the other. Imagine if the closer the teams are in performance, the larger number of games they have to play each other to find a winner -- for a 5% confidence level for a team that is 55-45 favorite, they'd have to play over 260 games, or 23 games if they are favored 66-33%.

    Life's few moments are usually not statistically significant.
  • Now, billion dollar question is: How to determine those moments? I think that answer to this question is to follow you guts!
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